Mudrex Price Analysis #33: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – 16th March 2020

This is #33 of BTCUSD daily trend analysis, provided by Mudrex (automated crypto investing platform). This analysis is based on signals from 28 technical indicators, out of which 17 are moving averages and the remaining 11 are oscillators. These indicator values are calculated using 1 day candles.

You can find price analysis from previous days here.



  • Price at time of publishing: $4,500
  • BTC’s market cap: $85 Billion

Trend analysis

The recent bloodbath, lead by Corona-virus scare, has been driven by the huge trade volume dumps. This usually happens when a big player places a very big buy/sell order which influences the market and forces it to move sharply in one direction. One thing that we are now sure about is that bitcoin is not immune to the global financial market mayhem. We need to re-evaluate bitcoin’s ‘safe-haven‘ narrative as it is now acting in correlation with traditional markets.
Amid this situation of sudden trade volume dumps, it has become increasingly hard to predict price movements.
Note: Below analysis would hold true if we do not encounter sudden jump in trade volume.

  • Weak bullish today
  • Moving average‘ indicators are unanimously indicating downtrend
  • Oscillator‘ indicators are mostly neutral, with slight bias towards buy opportunity

Moving Average Indicators

The MAs are biased towards the recent market drop and hence are indicating a sell opportunity. Only Hull MA (9) is pointing towards buy. The gap between MAs and price is huge, pointing towards a unstable market.

Definition:- Moving Average indicators are lagging indicators that help catch trends when they are beginning to take effect. The idea is to buy when the trend is moving up and sell when the trend is falling.

Exponential Moving Average (5)5499.75Sell
Simple Moving Average (5)5156.28Sell
Exponential Moving Average (10)6332.49Sell
Simple Moving Average (10)6646.58Sell
Exponential Moving Average (20)7322.93Sell
Simple Moving Average (20)7723.43Sell
Exponential Moving Average (30)7828.23Sell
Simple Moving Average (30)8391.99Sell
Exponential Moving Average (50)8236.29Sell
Simple Moving Average (50)8910.76Sell
Exponential Moving Average (100)8426.41Sell
Simple Moving Average (100)8314.91Sell
Exponential Moving Average (200)8426.82Sell
Simple Moving Average (200)8529.23Sell
Ichimoku Cloud Base Line (9, 26, 52, 26)6938.83Neutral
Volume Weighted Moving Average (20)6479.98Sell
Hull Moving Average (9)4457.01Buy

Oscillator indicators

Although most oscillators are still pointing to neutral, there are positive ‘buy’ signs too. RSI has move to oversold zone.

Definition:- Oscillator indicators are based on market’s property that what goes up must come down. Reversion to the mean is one of the most fundamental properties of any market. Oscillators are predictive in nature, specifying future price momentum.

Relative Strength Index (14)24.21Buy
Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3)23.39Neutral
Commodity Channel Index (20)−151.63Buy
Average Directional Index (14)41.83Neutral
Awesome Oscillator−3214.78Sell
Momentum (10)−4349.80Buy
MACD Level (12, 26)−1073.35Sell
Stochastic RSI Fast (3, 3, 14, 14)27.95Neutral
Williams Percent Range (14)−82.23Neutral
Bull Bear Power−3283.23Neutral
Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28)34.28Neutral

Price Action

The price was stable till late night yesterday, when post the volume jump, price was pushed to $6,000 mark but soon was pulled back to $5,300 mark. We are observing a price drop from last couple of hours, accompanied by volume increase.

BTCUSD price chart via Tradingview

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