This is #33 of BTCUSD daily trend analysis, provided by Mudrex (automated crypto investing platform). This analysis is based on signals from 28 technical indicators, out of which 17 are moving averages and the remaining 11 are oscillators. These indicator values are calculated using 1 day candles.
You can find price analysis from previous days here.
Summary
Market
- Price at time of publishing: $4,500
- BTC’s market cap: $85 Billion
Trend analysis
The recent bloodbath, lead by Corona-virus scare, has been driven by the huge trade volume dumps. This usually happens when a big player places a very big buy/sell order which influences the market and forces it to move sharply in one direction. One thing that we are now sure about is that bitcoin is not immune to the global financial market mayhem. We need to re-evaluate bitcoin’s ‘safe-haven‘ narrative as it is now acting in correlation with traditional markets.
Amid this situation of sudden trade volume dumps, it has become increasingly hard to predict price movements.
Note: Below analysis would hold true if we do not encounter sudden jump in trade volume.
- Weak bullish today
- ‘Moving average‘ indicators are unanimously indicating downtrend
- ‘Oscillator‘ indicators are mostly neutral, with slight bias towards buy opportunity
Moving Average Indicators
The MAs are biased towards the recent market drop and hence are indicating a sell opportunity. Only Hull MA (9) is pointing towards buy. The gap between MAs and price is huge, pointing towards a unstable market.
Definition:- Moving Average indicators are lagging indicators that help catch trends when they are beginning to take effect. The idea is to buy when the trend is moving up and sell when the trend is falling.
| Buy | Neutral | Sell |
| 1 | 1 | 15 |
| Name | Value | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Exponential Moving Average (5) | 5499.75 | Sell |
| Simple Moving Average (5) | 5156.28 | Sell |
| Exponential Moving Average (10) | 6332.49 | Sell |
| Simple Moving Average (10) | 6646.58 | Sell |
| Exponential Moving Average (20) | 7322.93 | Sell |
| Simple Moving Average (20) | 7723.43 | Sell |
| Exponential Moving Average (30) | 7828.23 | Sell |
| Simple Moving Average (30) | 8391.99 | Sell |
| Exponential Moving Average (50) | 8236.29 | Sell |
| Simple Moving Average (50) | 8910.76 | Sell |
| Exponential Moving Average (100) | 8426.41 | Sell |
| Simple Moving Average (100) | 8314.91 | Sell |
| Exponential Moving Average (200) | 8426.82 | Sell |
| Simple Moving Average (200) | 8529.23 | Sell |
| Ichimoku Cloud Base Line (9, 26, 52, 26) | 6938.83 | Neutral |
| Volume Weighted Moving Average (20) | 6479.98 | Sell |
| Hull Moving Average (9) | 4457.01 | Buy |
Oscillator indicators
Although most oscillators are still pointing to neutral, there are positive ‘buy’ signs too. RSI has move to oversold zone.
Definition:- Oscillator indicators are based on market’s property that what goes up must come down. Reversion to the mean is one of the most fundamental properties of any market. Oscillators are predictive in nature, specifying future price momentum.
| Buy | Neutral | Sell |
| 3 | 6 | 2 |
| Name | Value | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Relative Strength Index (14) | 24.21 | Buy |
| Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) | 23.39 | Neutral |
| Commodity Channel Index (20) | −151.63 | Buy |
| Average Directional Index (14) | 41.83 | Neutral |
| Awesome Oscillator | −3214.78 | Sell |
| Momentum (10) | −4349.80 | Buy |
| MACD Level (12, 26) | −1073.35 | Sell |
| Stochastic RSI Fast (3, 3, 14, 14) | 27.95 | Neutral |
| Williams Percent Range (14) | −82.23 | Neutral |
| Bull Bear Power | −3283.23 | Neutral |
| Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28) | 34.28 | Neutral |
Price Action
The price was stable till late night yesterday, when post the volume jump, price was pushed to $6,000 mark but soon was pulled back to $5,300 mark. We are observing a price drop from last couple of hours, accompanied by volume increase.
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