This is #45 of BTCUSD daily price analysis, provided by Mudrex (automated crypto investing platform). This analysis is based on signals from 28 technical indicators, out of which 17 are moving averages and the remaining 11 are oscillators. These indicator values are calculated using 4 hr candles.
You can find price analysis from previous days here.
Summary
Market
- BTC has been up-trending, now above the crucial $7,000 mark
- Price at time of publishing: $7,150
- BTC’s market cap: $131 Billion
Trend analysis
Even though BTC is up-trending, the uptrend is not supported by momentum and hence should be short-lived. Most oscillators are either neutral or indicating downtrend and hence the price should reverse its momentum and move down. This is a possible bull-trap, similar to the ones we had observed on 2nd and 4th April.
- Downtrend today
- ‘Oscillator‘ indicators are biased toward sell signal. RSI is in overbought zone
- ‘Moving averages‘ indicating buy, biased by the recent uptrend
Moving Average Indicators
Moving average indicator values have been converging as volatility has been low in past few weeks. Now, small change in BTC price is resulting in huge flips. Ichimoku Cloud is neutral and Hull MA is indicating a sell opportunity.
Definition:- Moving Average indicators are lagging indicators that help catch trends when they are beginning to take effect. The idea is to buy when the trend is moving up and sell when the trend is falling.
| Buy | Neutral | Sell |
| 15 | 1 | 1 |
| Name | Value | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Exponential Moving Average (5) | 7074.05 | Buy |
| Simple Moving Average (5) | 7064.83 | Buy |
| Exponential Moving Average (10) | 6978.91 | Buy |
| Simple Moving Average (10) | 6924.67 | Buy |
| Exponential Moving Average (20) | 6876.03 | Buy |
| Simple Moving Average (20) | 6840.06 | Buy |
| Exponential Moving Average (30) | 6802.89 | Buy |
| Simple Moving Average (30) | 6820.72 | Buy |
| Exponential Moving Average (50) | 6696.76 | Buy |
| Simple Moving Average (50) | 6610.67 | Buy |
| Exponential Moving Average (100) | 6617.66 | Buy |
| Simple Moving Average (100) | 6505.09 | Buy |
| Exponential Moving Average (200) | 6913.46 | Buy |
| Simple Moving Average (200) | 6703.88 | Buy |
| Ichimoku Cloud Base Line (9, 26, 52, 26) | 6941.24 | Neutral |
| Volume Weighted Moving Average (20) | 6881.27 | Buy |
| Hull Moving Average (9) | 7217.42 | Sell |
Oscillator indicators
Oscillators are biased towards sell opportunity, hence the recent uptrend is not supported and should be short-lived.
Definition:- Oscillator indicators are based on market’s property that what goes up must come down. Reversion to the mean is one of the most fundamental properties of any market. Oscillators are predictive in nature, specifying future price momentum. RSI is above 50 and MACD is pointing towards a buy opportunity.
| Buy | Neutral | Sell |
| 2 | 6 | 3 |
| Name | Value | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Relative Strength Index (14) | 72.47 | Sell |
| Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) | 93.43 | Neutral |
| Commodity Channel Index (20) | 193.34 | Sell |
| Average Directional Index (14) | 40.29 | Neutral |
| Awesome Oscillator | 282.48 | Buy |
| Momentum (10) | 372.20 | Sell |
| MACD Level (12, 26) | 123.23 | Buy |
| Stochastic RSI Fast (3, 3, 14, 14) | 100.00 | Neutral |
| Williams Percent Range (14) | −4.07 | Neutral |
| Bull Bear Power | 403.19 | Neutral |
| Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28) | 62.19 | Neutral |
What the price charts say…
Price has finally broken above the important psychological $7,000 mark. We observed an increase in volume, which is gradually decreasing. This is a time to be cautious as this uptrend is not supported by momentum and hence there are high chances of reversals.
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