Bitcoin’s price movements have historically followed recognizable patterns, helping analysts and traders anticipate potential trends. One such pattern, the Wyckoff accumulation phase, appears to be forming in early 2025, raising speculation about a possible Bitcoin rally back to $100,000.

Given the market’s recent trajectory, the application of the Wyckoff method suggests that Bitcoin may be in a critical accumulation phase, similar to patterns observed before previous price surges. But how reliable is this pattern, and what does it mean for the future of Bitcoin?

Understanding the Wyckoff Pattern and Its Importance

Developed by Richard D. Wyckoff in the early 20th century, the Wyckoff method is a widely used technical analysis framework for identifying accumulation and distribution phases in asset prices.

In an accumulation phase, large investors (often referred to as “smart money”) accumulate an asset at lower price levels, preparing for an eventual breakout. This phase is marked by a trading range where prices fluctuate within support and resistance levels.

The key elements of a Wyckoff accumulation phase include:

• Trading Range: A period of price consolidation with clear support and resistance levels.
• Spring or Shakeout: A false breakdown below support, often triggering stop-loss orders and causing weak hands to sell.
• Breakout Confirmation: Once smart money has accumulated enough, the price breaks resistance, initiating an uptrend.

While initially developed for stock markets, the Wyckoff pattern has gained credibility in crypto trading, as Bitcoin often exhibits similar cycles of accumulation and distribution.

Bitcoin’s Current Market Snapshot (February 2025)

As of February 26, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $87,946, reflecting recent market corrections following a peak of over $100,000 in late 2024.

Several macro factors influenced Bitcoin’s surge in 2024, including:

• Spot Bitcoin ETF approvals
• The April 2024 Bitcoin halving (reducing new BTC supply)
• Increased institutional adoption

Following its peak, Bitcoin retraced, forming a trading range, which some analysts identify as a potential Wyckoff accumulation.

Key market indicators suggest that Bitcoin may be preparing for a new bullish cycle:

• Trading Volume: Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading volume stands at $53.60 billion, indicating strong market activity.
• Technical Signals: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44.28 suggests a neutral but potentially bullish outlook.
• Historical Parallels: Previous Wyckoff patterns have preceded 40%+ rallies in Bitcoin’s price.

If the current pattern follows historical trends, Bitcoin could potentially retest $100,000 in 2025, with some analysts projecting even higher targets.

Lessons from Bitcoin’s 2024 Rally

To understand Bitcoin’s current setup, it is useful to analyze its performance in 2024, when a similar Wyckoff accumulation phase preceded a 40% rally.

In early 2024, Bitcoin consolidated post-halving, stabilizing around $60,000 before breaking out to new all-time highs of $100,000. The factors driving this rally included:

• Supply reduction from halving
• Inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs
• Retail and institutional buying momentum

If Bitcoin was at $70,000 in March 2024, a 40% price increase would have pushed it to $98,000 — a scenario that closely mirrors today’s market conditions.

Is Bitcoin in a Wyckoff Accumulation Phase?

The current market structure shares multiple similarities with past accumulation phases:

1. Price Consolidation: Bitcoin has been trading in a range between $87,946 and $109,356 in early 2025, reflecting uncertainty but underlying accumulation.
2. Spring or Shakeout: A recent false breakdown below support in February, accompanied by low volume, suggests potential accumulation.
3. Breakout Potential: If accumulation continues, a breakout above $100,000 could trigger a new rally.

Potential price targets based on historical patterns range from:

• $100,000 (22% increase)
• $185,000–$200,000 (up to 63% increase)

However, Bitcoin’s volatility introduces uncertainty. While the Wyckoff method provides valuable insights, external factors play a crucial role in price movements.

Diverging Opinions: Bullish vs. Bearish Sentiment

The crypto community remains divided on Bitcoin’s outlook:

Bullish Arguments:

• Wyckoff accumulation suggests a breakout is coming.
• Institutional adoption continues to grow, boosting demand.
• Macroeconomic factors (lower interest rates, liquidity expansion) favor risk assets.
• Bitcoin’s supply remains limited, making long-term appreciation likely.

Bearish Arguments:

• Technical patterns can be unreliable in crypto due to manipulation.
• Regulatory uncertainties pose risks (e.g., government crackdowns).
• Macroeconomic risks (tightening monetary policies) could limit upside.

This division highlights the uncertainty in forecasting Bitcoin’s price, reinforcing the need for a balanced investment approach.

External Factors That Could Shape Bitcoin’s Future

Beyond technical analysis, Bitcoin’s trajectory is influenced by macro and regulatory developments:

• Regulatory Landscape: A potential U.S. Bitcoin reserve strategy could boost demand, while unclear regulationsmight introduce volatility.
• Institutional Investments: Increased corporate and sovereign Bitcoin adoption could strengthen bullish momentum.
• Macroeconomic Conditions: Lower interest rates, inflation trends, and central bank policies will impact Bitcoin’s value proposition as a hedge against fiat devaluation.

Given these uncertainties, relying solely on technical indicators is insufficient. Investors must consider fundamental and macroeconomic factors when analyzing Bitcoin’s price movements.

Is a $100,000 Retest Likely?

Bitcoin’s Wyckoff accumulation phase signals a potential breakout toward $100,000 — but it is not guaranteed.

While technical analysis and historical patterns suggest a bullish setup, market conditions remain volatile. Investors should weigh all factors carefully before making decisions.

Key Takeaways:

• Wyckoff accumulation is forming, hinting at a bullish breakout.
• Past trends indicate Bitcoin could rally 22%–63% from current levels.
• Macroeconomic conditions and regulations remain critical risk factors.
• A diversified, research-driven approach is essential in crypto investing.

With Bitcoin’s future still unfolding, market participants should stay informed, cautious, and prepared for multiple scenarios. Whether Bitcoin reclaims $100,000 or faces further corrections, ongoing analysis will be crucial in navigating its trajectory.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s price movements often align with technical patterns, and the Wyckoff accumulation phase suggests a potential rally toward $100,000 in 2025. However, the crypto market’s inherent volatility and external factors demand a cautious approach.

As the market evolves, monitoring technical indicators, macroeconomic trends, and regulatory shifts will be essential in anticipating Bitcoin’s next move. Whether this is another bull run or a prolonged consolidation, the coming months will reveal Bitcoin’s true trajectory.

Would Bitcoin’s Wyckoff setup lead to another all-time high? Only time will tell.

Originally published in Medium