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None of this guarantees Bitcoin is entering a new bull run on its own. A clean Bitcoin breakout only tells you direction has changed, not how far it can run, and not whether the next Bitcoin bull run is actually underway. That is why the next signal, momentum, matters just as much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What Are RSI and MACD Signaling Right Now?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Momentum has turned bullish, but it is running hot enough to deserve a second look rather than blind confidence. The 14-day RSI is reading in the low-to-mid 70s, just past the traditional overbought line at 70. On its own, that would normally hint at a short-term pause. But as our RSI guide<\/a> explains, RSI can stay overbought for extended stretches during a genuinely strong trend, so an elevated reading during a fresh breakout is not automatically a warning sign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n MACD adds useful context here. The MACD line is sitting above the signal line, confirming the bullish crossover, and the broader trend of the last few weeks has been constructive. That said, the histogram bars have started shrinking a little from their recent peak, which suggests the initial burst of momentum is decelerating even though the underlying trend is still intact. This is a normal part of any strong rally: momentum accelerates into a breakout and then cools while price consolidates its gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Read together, price structure and momentum both point the same direction. The next question is whether real money, not just price action, is backing the move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Largely yes, and in a healthier way than a pure short squeeze. Aggregated open interest across major exchanges has climbed back toward roughly $26.8 billion, up from lows near $24 billion a few weeks ago, moving in tandem with price rather than against it. As our guide to open interest in crypto<\/a> explains, price and open interest rising together is generally read as a long build-up: fresh capital entering the trade, not just existing shorts buying back to close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The funding rate tells a complementary story. It has stayed positive through the rally, with brief spikes higher during the sharpest legs up, which means long positions are paying a premium to shorts. That is consistent with genuine bullish positioning. It is not yet at the kind of extreme, crowded levels that typically precede a sharp long squeeze, but it is a level worth monitoring, since our guide on why funding rates spike during market stress<\/a> notes that persistently elevated funding alongside rising open interest can eventually tip into overcrowded, squeeze-prone territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Derivatives data confirms leveraged traders believe the move. But leverage alone has fooled markets before. Sentiment and spot demand are the next pieces of the puzzle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sharply, yes. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index reads 65 today, squarely in Greed territory, up from 63 yesterday and roughly in line with last week’s 71. What stands out is the comparison to a month ago, when the index sat at just 25, deep in Extreme Fear. Swinging from Extreme Fear to Greed inside a few weeks is one of the faster sentiment reversals of the year, and it lines up almost exactly with the price breakout described above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Our guide to the Fear and Greed Index<\/a> is a useful companion here: the index blends volatility, momentum, social activity, and a few other inputs into one score, and it works best as a temperature check rather than a standalone trading signal. A reading of 65 is bullish confirmation of the mood shift, but it is not yet at the 80-plus extreme-greed levels that have historically warned of overheated, correction-prone markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sentiment confirms that retail mood has turned. The bigger question for any lasting bull run is whether institutional money is showing up too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yes, and this is arguably the most important shift of the six. Spot Bitcoin ETFs spent a stretch of the summer bleeding money, with several weeks posting outflows north of a billion dollars each. That pattern has reversed. Recent weeks have shown a run of consistent green (inflow) weeks, including one exceptionally strong week of roughly $2 billion, with total net assets across the complex now sitting near $97 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This matters because ETF flows are one of the harder signals to fake. A single green candle can be driven by thin weekend liquidity or short covering, but sustained ETF buying reflects real institutional investors and allocators moving real capital through a regulated, auditable channel, separate from the derivatives markets covered above. Our deeper look at whether Bitcoin can rise again<\/a> makes the same point: ETF inflows are a clearer read on institutional conviction than price action alone, precisely because the money behind them isn’t easily reversed on a whim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n With retail sentiment and institutional flows both turning up, the final piece is supply. Are coins actually leaving exchanges, or is this demand meeting an ocean of available supply?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Mostly yes, though this is the one signal with a caveat attached. Bitcoin held on exchanges climbed to a local peak of around 2.735 million BTC in mid-August, then fell sharply through the back half of August, dropping toward roughly 2.705 to 2.710 million BTC almost exactly as the price breakout took hold. Coins leaving exchanges generally means they are moving into longer-term custody or cold storage, often into the hands of long-term holders and whales rather than sitting ready to be sold on crypto exchanges, which is typically read as an accumulation signal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Our guide to on-chain analysis in crypto<\/a> covers exchange flow data like this in more depth: a falling exchange balance during a price rally is generally a healthier setup than a rally happening while reserves climb, since the latter can mean holders are moving coins onto exchanges to sell into strength. Reading Bitcoin on-chain signals for a bull market this way, alongside the exchange-flow trend, is more reliable than judging price alone. The catch here is that reserves have ticked back up slightly to around 2.711 million BTC in the most recent few days, so the supply squeeze is not a one-way street and is worth rechecking as fresh data comes in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n ALSO SEE<\/strong>: BTC to INR converter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Five of the six signals covered here, price structure, momentum, derivatives positioning, sentiment, and ETF flows, are pointing the same direction, and the sixth, exchange reserves, is directionally supportive with a small recent wrinkle. That is a meaningfully stronger alignment than a typical relief rally, where usually only price and short-term momentum move while sentiment, flows, and derivatives lag behind or contradict it. This is also a fair answer to whether Bitcoin can rally after a market correction: the data suggests this particular rally has broader backing than most bounce attempts earlier in the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Context matters too, including factors outside the charts, like Federal Reserve policy, stablecoin supply growth, and how miners are behaving post-halving. This move is unfolding roughly 28 months after the April 2024 halving, inside the window that historical cycles have often associated with the more explosive phase of a Bitcoin bull run 2026 setup, as our breakdown of bull run signals and catalysts for the cycle<\/a> lays out in more detail alongside other BTC bull market signals worth tracking, like BTC dominance and stablecoin supply growth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n That does not make a continued rally certain, and it doesn’t fully answer has the next Bitcoin bull market started in a way anyone can guarantee. Halving-driven cycles are a historical pattern, not a promise, and macro shocks, regulatory headlines, or a sudden reversal in ETF flows could stall the move at any point. Bitcoin bull run price targets and risks both cut in the same direction here: bigger upside historically comes paired with bigger, faster drawdowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The fair way to frame it: the weight of current evidence leans toward Bitcoin being in the early-to-middle stages of a new bull run rather than a short-lived bounce, but this is not financial advice, and every trader or investor should weigh their own risk tolerance and time horizon before acting. If you want to track this yourself as it develops, you can check live prices and buy Bitcoin in India<\/a> on Mudrex, or explore the Mudrex app<\/a> (Android | Apple) and the Mudrex YouTube channel<\/a> for ongoing coverage of these same signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/mudrex.com\/learn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-4-1024x742.png\" "\\"\\"")
Is the Derivatives Market Confirming the Move?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Has Market Sentiment Flipped From Fear to Greed?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Are Institutions Buying Through Spot ETFs Again?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Are Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Signaling a Supply Squeeze?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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So, What Confirms a Bitcoin Bull Run Right Now?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n