Bitcoin Grapples with Trade War Volatility (May 1, 2025)
Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a mild pullback today, slipping by approximately 0.81% to trade near $94,000, as market sentiment takes a cautious turn following the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP data. The Q1 2025 GDP figures came in below analyst forecasts, signaling a potential economic slowdown in the world’s largest economy. This data has triggered risk-off sentiment across financial markets, with investors showing increased sensitivity toward macroeconomic headwinds.
The weaker GDP print is raising fresh concerns about the Federal Reserve’s next policy move—particularly whether prolonged high interest rates could deepen economic stagnation. As a result, Bitcoin, which has been closely tracking global liquidity conditions, has faced short-term selling pressure as traders de-risk in response to these uncertain signals.
At the same time, technical indicators suggest BTC is still consolidating within a broader bullish structure. However, the inability to decisively break above the $96,000–$97,800 resistance zone, combined with cautious macro sentiment, is contributing to today’s minor decline.
Key Observations
Price Action & Market Overview
Bitcoin is currently trading in the $94,000–$95,000 range, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.88 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $29.13 billion.
Despite the slight drop, BTC remains structurally bullish on higher timeframes. However, the price continues to hover just beneath the critical resistance zone of $96,000–$97,800, where significant sell-side liquidity is visible. A failure to break out from this range has kept BTC in a sideways consolidation, frustrating short-term bulls and enticing profit-taking.
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Technical Analysis
1. Moving Averages
• The 50-Day MA is trending upward around $90,000–$92,000, acting as a dynamic support zone.
• The 200-Day MA also continues its long-term uptrend since January 2025.
• The 200-Day EMA, near $94,200, is currently a key pivot level where bulls are trying to maintain momentum.
ALSO READ: How to Use Moving Averages in Crypto Trading
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
• The 14-Day RSI is at 83.68, indicating overbought conditions on the weekly timeframe.
• The Daily RSI is at 51.48, suggesting that while momentum is neutral, there’s room for further upside if sentiment recovers.
ALSO READ: What is RSI in Crypto?
3. Ichimoku Cloud
• On the daily chart, BTC is trading above the cloud, a generally bullish sign. The Chikou Span has retested the kumo and bounced, showing resilience from bulls.
4. Support & Resistance
• Support Levels:
• $90,907 – key daily support
• $77,600–$84,440 – deeper consolidation zone
• Resistance Levels:
• $94,381 – immediate hurdle
• $96,000–$97,800 – key supply zone
• $99,449 – next major breakout point
A breakout above $97,800 could push BTC toward $100,000+, while a rejection or macro-triggered dip below $90,907 could open the door to a retest of $84,000 or lower.
ALSO READ: Support and Resistance Levels in Crypto Explained
5. Chart Patterns
• BTC has broken out of an ascending parallel channel, maintaining gradual bullish momentum despite facing overhead resistance.
Liquidation Heatmap Overview
Recent liquidation data shows a clear build-up of leveraged positions at key levels:
• If BTC rises to $105,268, over $5.59 billion in short positions will be liquidated.
• A drop to $83,512 would wipe out approximately $13.02 billion in long positions.
• High-leverage zones according to liquidation heatmap 24hour
• Shorts are heavily positioned around $96,000
• Longs are stacked around $92,500
These zones highlight the likely battlegrounds for short-term volatility, as both bulls and bears defend their high-leverage entries.
Market Sentiment
Bullish Factors Still in Play• ETF Inflows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have brought in $15 billion in net new capital during 2024, with projections that these vehicles may hold over 1.5 million BTC by 2026.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s slight 0.4% dip to $85,188 on April 15, 2025, reflected cautious optimism from Trump’s tariff pause, while April 16’s 2.1% drop to $83,458 by 16:34 PM IST signals renewed trade war fears from EU tariff threats.
The OM Mantra crash, plummeting 95% and shaking altcoins, left BTC’s tariff-driven trajectory untouched. Within the $78K–$92K symmetrical triangle, BTC’s retreat from $85K suggests a test of $80K support—falling below could hit $70K–$71K, while a push above $92K eyes $102K–$105K. Trade policy shifts will dictate April’s volatile path.
