Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $101,633, registering a 1.85% intraday drop. The price action has been bearish throughout the day, with a high of $103,982 and a low of $101,110. Market capitalization currently stands at $2.01 trillion, and 24-hour trading volume has contracted sharply to $35.98 billion, marking a 27.06% decrease. This declining volume during a downtrend may indicate cautious sentiment among both buyers and sellers.
Chart Analysis (1D Timeframe):
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): BTC is now testing the lower Bollinger Band (101,124), indicating downside volatility. The mid-band (20-day SMA) at 105,538 is acting as resistance, and the upper band sits far above at 109,952. The breach of the lower band suggests heightened bearish momentum.
• MACD: The MACD line (-248.05) has diverged further below the signal line (416.67), with the MACD histogram at -664.72 showing increasing bearish momentum. This crossover confirms strong downside pressure.
• RSI: All RSI values are in the bearish-neutral zone:
• RSI(6): 24.31 (oversold)
• RSI(12): 37.42
• RSI(24): 47.18
The short-term RSI being in oversold territory suggests a potential short-term bounce, but medium-term momentum remains weak.
• Stochastic RSI: The value is extremely low at 0.66, indicating a deep oversold condition. However, a reversal confirmation is still missing, making it risky to consider a long position purely based on this.
• Volume: Volume is down significantly. Today’s candle is accompanied by weaker volume, suggesting reduced conviction behind the drop. This could imply either selling exhaustion or a wait-and-watch mode by buyers.
Liquidation Heatmap Insights:
• 24-hour Heatmap:
• A cluster of high-leverage short liquidations was triggered around $105,000. This region may act as resistance due to trapped short positions.
• High-leverage long liquidation pressure was seen near $100,000, indicating that any breakdown below this level could accelerate the selloff due to cascading liquidations.
• 30-day Heatmap:
• If BTC drops to $91,467, approximately $3.54 billion in long positions will be at risk.
• On the flip side, a breakout to $117,497 would trigger short liquidations worth $15.87 billion—making this level a key resistance trigger for a potential squeeze scenario.
Altseason Index:
The altseason index remains stagnant at 18, still firmly within the “Bitcoin Season” zone. There is no signal of altcoin dominance, confirming that BTC is still the primary driver of market momentum.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin is trading at a critical support level near the lower Bollinger Band with bearish momentum dominating. Although several short-term indicators suggest the market is oversold, the lack of volume and pressure from liquidation zones below $100,000 raise caution. A drop below $100K could lead to rapid long liquidations, while a strong bounce above $105K might trap short sellers. The market remains in a consolidation phase within the broader bearish context. Traders are advised to watch key liquidation levels closely and maintain a risk-managed approach.
