Is the Crypto Bull Run Over? Cycles, Data & What Investors Should Do Now

The question on everyone’s mind is simple but loaded: Is the crypto bull run over, or is this just another shakeout? Investors feel uneasy when prices fall sharply after months of optimism. Crypto moves in cycles, and those cycles can be confusing to interpret in real time. 

This guide walks through data, on-chain trends, historical cycles, macro conditions, and practical steps so you can navigate the uncertainty with clarity and confidence.

TL;DR – Is the Crypto Bull Run Over Right Now?

• Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies are down from recent highs, but the drawdowns remain within the typical 20 to 40 percent range seen in every previous bull market.
• Current market structure aligns more with a normal bull-market correction than a confirmed transition into a bear market.
• Treat this moment as one that calls for planning and risk management, not certainty about tops or bottoms.

Where Are We in the Current Crypto Cycle?

Crypto markets tend to follow a rhythm that blends Bitcoin’s issuance schedule, investor psychology, on-chain activity, and global liquidity conditions. To understand whether the bull run is over, it helps to first understand where we stand in the broader cycle.

Quick refresher – the Bitcoin 4-year halving cycle

Bitcoin’s issuance is cut in half roughly every four years. This event, known as the halving, has historically marked the beginning of a new cycle. Halvings occurred in 2012, 2016, 2020, and most recently in April 2024. After each halving, the market typically goes through accumulation phases, expansions, parabolic growth, and eventual peaks.

Historically, the most aggressive part of the bull run tends to arrive 12 to 18 months after the halving. In 2016, the peak arrived about 17 months later. In 2020, the market peaked about 18 months later. If history even loosely repeats, the most intense phase of this cycle may still lie ahead.

This is why many analysts caution against calling a cycle top this early. The bull run may still be in its expansion stage rather than its euphoria stage.

Time since last halving and last major bottom

We are months removed from the April 2024 halving. That places us in what has often been the early to mid portion of previous bull markets. We are also more than a year removed from the 2022 bear-market lows, which aligns with the typical recovery and expansion timeline.

Time alone does not guarantee bullish performance, but the historical rhythm suggests we are within the heart of the cycle rather than the end.

Drawdown from the recent peak vs past bull-market corrections

Every bull market includes painful corrections. In 2017, Bitcoin dropped 30 to 40 percent multiple times before reaching its ultimate peak. The same occurred in 2021. Mid-cycle drawdowns are common because markets reprice risk rapidly when liquidity shifts or sentiment cools.

Current drawdowns remain within this historical range. This does not prove the bull run continues, but it makes a complete cycle top less likely. In other words, this drawdown still appears to be a normal correction rather than an early bear market signal.

How Long Do Crypto Bull Runs Usually Last?

A powerful way to answer the question is by looking at how long previous bull markets lasted and whether this cycle aligns with them.

Historical bull runs: 2013, 2017, 2021

Bitcoin’s major bull runs produced dramatic peaks. The 2013 cycle lasted roughly one year from breakout to top. The 2017 cycle lasted around 18 months. The 2021 cycle lasted nearly two years, depending on which top you reference.

Each cycle tends to stretch longer as the market matures and new capital arrives in slower, more structured ways.

Average duration and diminishing returns

Two patterns stand out across all cycles:

• Cycles are getting longer
• Returns are diminishing as the market grows

Both patterns suggest that the market becomes more efficient over time. Short bursts of euphoria become less extreme, and expansions take longer.

If this pattern holds, the current cycle may be earlier in its timeline than many fear.

Why this cycle may rhyme but not repeat

This cycle has several unique features:

• Institutional investors participate through regulated Bitcoin ETFs.
• Liquidity conditions move in sync with global macro factors.
• Stablecoin markets are larger and more integrated.
• Regulatory clarity in some major regions has improved.

These variables could extend or reshape the cycle. It might follow the familiar halving pattern but with smoother rather than explosive movements.

Signs the Bull Run Might Not Be Over Yet

Despite volatility, several indicators show the bull market may not have reached its climax.

Sentiment: Has there been true euphoria yet?

Late-cycle tops involve intense public excitement. Retail investors flood in. Memecoins explode. Media coverage becomes overwhelming. Search interest and social metrics hit extremes.

At the moment, sentiment remains mixed rather than euphoric. Some hot sectors have rallied, but sustained mania is not yet widespread. Lack of retail frenzy is often a sign that a cycle top has not arrived.

Technical structure: Mid-cycle vs end-of-cycle markers

A full cycle top often shows certain technical patterns:

• Failure to make higher highs
• Breakdown of monthly support levels
• Multi-timeframe bearish divergences
• Parabolic blow-off followed by rejection

Current charts present a more neutral picture. The market has corrected but has not broken long-term uptrend structures on monthly timeframes. This resembles mid-cycle consolidations seen in past bull markets.

Liquidity and adoption

Liquidity remains one of the strongest arguments for continued bullish potential. ETF flows have not turned decisively negative. Institutional adoption remains steady. These forces do not guarantee upside, but they support the view that the cycle may not be exhausted.

On-chain and participation

On-chain data shows a moderate cooldown but not the severe distribution associated with cycle tops. Long-term holders remain historically steady and have not rushed to sell. Active addresses and network activity are not collapsing.

Together, these indicators lean toward a mid-cycle correction rather than a completed bull run.

Signs the Bull Run Could Be Over (or Close to It)

Balance is important. There are also credible signs that the cycle could be nearing exhaustion or transitioning into a slower phase.

Macro risk: Slowing growth and sticky inflation

Global macro plays a huge role. When growth slows or inflation remains sticky, central banks may hold rates higher. That reduces liquidity and pressures risk assets like crypto. These conditions have historically cooled bullish momentum.

Technical breakdowns

Certain technical patterns can mark trend reversals:

• Losing key weekly support levels
• Failure to reclaim breakdown zones
• Formation of lower highs and lower lows
• Volume declining during rallies

A series of such breakdowns can point toward a major cycle shift.

Diminishing returns and cycle fatigue

Each cycle provides smaller returns. This is normal in maturing markets, but it may also mean peaks come earlier. Some analysts believe institutional participation may smooth out cycles and reduce upside potential.

What if this cycle tops early vs history?

Cycles do not have to follow past patterns. If this cycle tops earlier, it could be due to macro conditions, crowding around ETF trades, or the sheer size of the market. Early topping is possible but would require a breakdown in liquidity and sentiment.

Bull Markets Have Crashes Too: Understanding Mid-Cycle Corrections

A critical truth about crypto is that bull markets are rarely smooth. They include violent pullbacks that look like the end but are not.

Why are 20 to 30 percent drops common even in bull runs

Bitcoin and other large caps have repeatedly corrected 20 to 30 percent or more in the middle of bull markets. This clearing of leverage and excessive optimism resets the market and creates the foundation for new highs.

Psychology of the denial and bull trap phases

During mid-cycle corrections, investors often experience denial. They assume the dip is temporary, then fear takes over if the market fails to bounce quickly. This emotional swing creates false signals and traps.

Understanding this psychology helps you avoid panic decisions.

How to tell the correction from a trend reversal

While no indicator is perfect, combining the following improves clarity:

• Higher timeframe trend structure
• Macro liquidity trends
• On-chain distribution patterns
• ETF flow direction

Remember that no single metric calls tops or bottoms reliably. Decisions should be based on plans rather than feelings.

What Should You Do if You’re Worried the Bull Run Is Over?

This section brings everything together with practical actions for different investor profiles.

First step: Define your time horizon and risk

Your investment horizon determines your strategy. Short-term traders require precise entries and exits. Long-term investors can ride volatility more comfortably. Deciding your horizon upfront reduces stress.

If you think the bull run is over

You can take defensive steps without panic:

• Rotate into BTC, ETH, or stablecoins.
• Reduce exposure to volatile altcoins.
• Trim leverage or close leveraged positions.
• Take partial profits.
• Rebalance toward less volatile assets like gold or cash equivalents.

This method protects capital while leaving room for participation if the market recovers.

If you think it is a mid-cycle dip

Investors who believe in continued upside can:

• Stick to SIP or DCA plans.
• Maintain allocation bands.
• Avoid aggressive leverage.
• Focus on quality projects rather than speculative plays.

These steps reinforce discipline without emotional swings.

What long-term investors can do regardless

Long-term investors can benefit from:

• Regular rebalancing every one to three months.
• Allocating in measured steps rather than lump sums.
• Avoiding the need to time every top or bottom.

Should You Buy the Dip or Wait?

Buying dips is celebrated online but requires strategy and discipline.

When buying the dip fits your profile

Dip buying suits investors who:

• Have long horizons.
• Maintain a stable income.
• Can handle moderate volatility.

This approach works best when combined with consistent accumulation.

How to buy dips without blowing up

Successful dip buyers:

• Use DCA to smooth entries.
• Manage position sizes carefully.
• Keep dry powder for deeper drops.
• Spread orders across levels rather than picking exact bottoms.

When you should avoid buying dips

It may be wise to wait if you:

• They are already overexposed to crypto.
• Feel emotional stress about volatility.
• Use short-term capital that you need soon.
• Recently suffered losses and are tempted to chase rebounds.

Patience can be a strategy when uncertainty is high.

Which Cryptos Could Still Outperform Later in the Cycle?

Forecasting winners is challenging, but historical patterns give clues.

Why large caps typically lead

Bitcoin and Ethereum often lead in the early and late stages of bull markets. They attract institutional flows and act as anchors for the market. Their dominance may rise again if conditions tighten.

Themes to watch, not guarantees

Sectors often rotate during cycles. Themes that may attract interest include:

• AI-integrated blockchain projects
• Layer 2 scaling solutions
• Real-world assets tokenization
• Infrastructure projects with strong fundamentals

These are themes to watch, not guaranteed winners.

Why asking “Which crypto will go 100x in 2025?” is the wrong question

Hunting for 100x tokens leads to exposure in high-risk assets that often fail. Survivorship bias and scams dominate this segment. Aiming for steady, sustainable returns with balanced exposure provides more reliable outcomes.

Conclusion

Crypto cycles always feel obvious in hindsight but chaotic in the moment. The current environment shows volatility, mixed sentiment, and shifting macro conditions, yet most data still aligns with a mid-cycle correction rather than a completed top. History suggests that bull runs rarely move in straight lines and often include sharp drops that shake out weak hands before the next leg higher.

Instead of trying to predict the exact turning point, investors benefit far more from disciplined allocation rules, long-term thinking, and strategies that do not depend on perfect timing. Whether the market strengthens or cools further, having a structured plan reduces stress and keeps your decisions consistent. 

If you want to navigate bull and bear markets with less stress and more structure, build a rules-based investing plan on Mudrex. Explore the latest insights, guides, and market education on Mudrex Learn to stay ahead without chasing every headline.

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