Mudrex Crypto Market Outlook | 17th May 2023

Mudrex Crypto Market Outlook | 17th May 2023

Synopsis

  • The correlation between Bitcoin and Ether has dropped by 80% for the first time in 18 months. With a falling correlation, it becomes more convenient to include both these assets to build a diversified portfolio.
  • Transaction fees or gas prices have returned to normal after skyrocketing over the past few weeks. The hype around the different meme coins has faded marginally. However, over the coming months, Bitcoin’s BRC-20 and Dogecoin’s DRC-20 token standards could become the hub of memecoins.
  • Regulatory concerns across the US and Canada have forced multiple crypto exchanges out of these countries and set up offices overseas. Bitcoin’s market dominance dropped by almost 2% from 48.29% to 46.4% in a week.
  • We expect the market to remain in a range-bound consolidation mode over the coming week before it begins its next leg of moves.
Figure 1: Total Crypto Market Capitalization

Key observations

We witnessed a crypto market correction this past week. The total market cap comfortably sits over the $1 Trillion mark. However, regulatory troubles across US and Canada and macroeconomic factors, such as concerns about a potential default of the US government on its debt obligations, have kept the market participants on their toes.

Analysis

The correlation between the price action of Bitcoin and Ether has fallen below 80% for the first time since November 2021. It indicates a significant shift in the relationship between the two major cryptocurrencies.

Figure 2: Bitcoin Ether Correlation
  • The correlation has been dropping since mid-to-late March. It transpired as Bitcoin began outperforming other cryptocurrencies during the multiple banking crises.
  • The drop has become more pronounced following the recent Shapella Upgrade in Ethereum.

Transaction fees or gas prices have returned to normal levels after skyrocketing over the past couple of weeks. The hype around the different meme coins has faded marginally. 

Figure 3: Ethereum transaction fees for the past week
  • However, the meme coin season is far from over. Bitcoin’s BRC-20 token standard has become the latest trend in the crypto ecosystem. A total of 8,500 different tokens have been minted using the BRC-20 standard, with most of these being memecoins. 
  • It should not be surprising that the OG meme coin, Dogecoin’s DRC-20 token, becomes the new hub for memecoins. In fact, it surpassed the daily transactions in Bitcoin, reaching an all-time high of 628K compared to 575K in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s market dominance dropped by almost 2% in the face of regulatory troubles. Altcoins capitalized on BTC’s price correction, and most of the top altcoins witnessed a decent rise in their market dominance.

Figure 4: Market dominance of different cryptocurrencies

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Deep dive into the top gainer and loser

We closely analyze the performance of top 50 coins by market capitalization, and take a closer look at the best and the worst performers of the week.

Top gainer of the week: Lido DAO (LDO) up by 15.02% ⬆️  

  • Lido Finance, the largest liquid staking protocol on Ethereum, has upgraded to version 2 (v2).
  • With the change, users can withdraw ether from the platform in a 1:1 ratio using staked ether.
 Figure 5: LDO technical analysis

Opinion

Fundamental analysis: Lido Finance continues to assert its dominance in the liquid staking market, recording a substantial increase in its total value locked (TVL) in ETH LSDs in the past week. 

Technical analysis: 2 out of 9 oscillator indicators hint at a bullish momentum, whereas 13 out of 15 moving average indicators hint at a bullish momentum. Overall, technicals point to a positive outlook for LidoDAO (LDO). However, it is important to note that the price action needs to convincingly break past the resistance level.

Biggest loser of the week: Polygon (MATIC) down by 5.19% ⬇️  

Figure 6: MATIC technical analysis

Opinion

Fundamental analysis: Polygon has been forging strong partnerships lately. This recent dip is an anticipated price correction influenced by the overall crypto market.

Technical analysis: MATIC is in a consolidation mode after the recent price correction. This consolidation is expected to continue for some more time.  However, as and when MATIC moves higher, the closest resistance level is about 12% higher than the current price. Out of 11 oscillators, nine hint at a neutral movement, one is bullish and one is bearish. Out of 15 oscillator indicators, 14 are bearish, and one is neutral.

Conclusion

The past week saw a correction in the crypto market, with regulatory concerns in the US and Canada adding to the pressure. However, the market remains above the $1 trillion mark, and transaction fees have returned to normal levels. We expect the market to remain range-bound in the coming week before it begins its next leg of moves. 

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