Mudrex Crypto Market Outlook | 5-10 September 2023


  • Grayscale Victory and The SEC delaying the inevitable ETF launch
  • Bitwise pulls out of The ETF race.
  • Uniswap Lawsuit gets dismissed
  • Biggest winner and loser of the week
Figure 1: Cryptocurrency total market cap

Key Observations

The market cap could fall below $1T. We anticipate it to move sideways and consolidate before making a move on either side. In the event of a downtrend, we can assume the market to meet support at $995B.


Grayscale Victory Boosts Decade-Long Effort for Spot Bitcoin ETF

A court ruling favoring Grayscale Investments marks a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency industry’s decade-long endeavor to launch a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). The ruling by a three-judge panel in Washington mandates the SEC to review Grayscale’s application. Nevertheless, it underscores the cryptocurrency industry’s rights to due process and clarifies how to meet the SEC’s investor protection standards.

Figure 2: US Court on SEC’s decision

A spot Bitcoin ETF would provide investors with exposure to Bitcoin’s market without direct ownership. The SEC has previously denied all spot Bitcoin ETF applications, citing concerns about investor protection from market manipulation. Grayscale argued that its ETF, similar to Bitcoin futures ETFs, should be approved as both rely on Bitcoin’s underlying price. The court’s ruling challenges the SEC’s denial, potentially paving the way for future successful spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitwise Withdraws Bitcoin ETF Application

Figure 4:  Bitwise rethinks the ETF route

Following the SEC’s postponement of decisions on various Bitcoin ETF applications to mid-October or possibly even further into 2024, Bitwise has requested the withdrawal of its application for the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). The asset manager had initially filed with the SEC on Aug. 3. While market sentiment turned positive after Grayscale’s SEC victory, Bitwise may be reevaluating its strategy after the SEC’s delay. The ETF aimed to invest in Bitcoin futures contracts based on market capitalization.

DeFi Scores Legal Victory

In what appeared to be legal milestone for DeFi, a lawsuit against Uniswap’s developers and investors has been dismissed.The court ruled that Uniswap was not liable for fraudulent activities facilitated on its platform by third-party token issuers.This judgment could set a precedent for decentralized protocols facing legal challenges, including the ongoing Treasury case against Tornado Cash. 

Figure 5: Uniswap Lawsuit Dismissal

Top gainer of the week: Toncoin (TON) up by 19% ⬆️

Figure 7: TON technical analysis


Fundamental Analysis:

The number of developers actively involved on TON has surged by 40% since the beginning of the year. This growing interest from developers is a favorable factor for the network’s long-term prospects. It is leading to heightened demand for the token which has seen a drive in price action.

Technical Analysis:

The bulls have gained control and driven the price up. The support of 1.72 would be crucial for the coming week. If it breaks, we anticipate a major correction. If the support holds, we can expect a positive sentiment.

Oscillator indicators: 2 bearish, 8 neutral, 1 bullish

Moving average indicators: 2 bearish, 1 neutral, 8 bullish

Biggest loser of the week:  Hedera (HBAR) down by 9% ⬇️

Figure 8: HBAR technical analysis


Fundamental analysis: 1.5 billion tokens were added to the circulating supply of HBAR on September 1. This has resulted in an increases sell pressure as seen with the sell-off.

HBAR has experienced a decline over the past week.It is likely to test the support regions of 0.046-0.047. If it breaks, we expect a revisit to levels of Nov-Dec 2022.

Oscillator indicators: 0 bearish, 9 neutral, 2 bullish

Moving Average indicators: 14 bearish, 1 neutral, 0 bullish


The cryptocurrency market was marked with important events.The past week showcased how US Courts reacted to the SEC’s decision on delaying the ETFs. In a surprising move, Bitwise has withdrawn their ETF application.Uniswap got its lawsuit dismissed to round up this week’s highlights.The activity in the market suggests that the market shall move sideways.


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