As of August 28, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $112,000, with the global market cap sitting at roughly $3.8 trillion. After a summer marked by steady inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a bullish undercurrent, the market feels poised for its next big move.
While no one can predict crypto’s future with 100% precision, historical patterns and macroeconomic events offer valuable clues.
In this blog, we’ll explain when and why the crypto market could go up again.
September: A Historically Weak Month for the Crypto Market
Financial markets often follow seasonal patterns, with certain months showing consistent patterns driven by investor behavior, economic cycles, or external events. This phenomenon, known as seasonality, is well-documented in stocks, commodities, and even crypto, despite its relatively short history.
For Bitcoin, September has earned the nickname: “Septembear.” Some years are particularly bad.
Year
Bitcoin September Drop
2021
18%
2019
30%
2018
19%
2017
21%
Why does September consistently bring volatility in the crypto market?
There are several reasons for this
Close to September, retail and institutional investors tend to move towards more traditional assets, which are considered safer. This shift is usually due to investors rebalancing their portfolios ahead of year-end reporting and regulatory cycles. Moving towards traditional assets provides more stability, liquidity, and predictable returns, which helps them manage risk and safeguard performance.
Regulatory announcements like Fed rate cuts and taxation changes, which crypto is especially sensitive to, have also historically clustered around this time, shaking markets. For instance, past Septembers have coincided with crackdowns or policy shifts in major markets like China or the U.S., amplifying downward pressure.
Without a strong catalyst, September 2025 could drag the market into the familiar territory of Redtember, testing the patience and resolve of even the most determined HODLers.
But seasonality isn’t set in stone.
While historical trends provide a potential route map, they can be disrupted by powerful external forces, especially macroeconomic ones. One such potential disruptor is the upcoming FOMC meeting.
Key Event to Watch: The FOMC Meeting and Rate Cut Announcements
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the policy arm of the US Federal Reserve, sets the interest rate at which major institutions borrow funds. Changes in this rate influence borrowing costs, liquidity, and global markets.
When rates are cut, credit becomes cheaper, boosting spending and investment. Lower rates also make safe assets less attractive, often driving investors toward riskier options like stocks, real estate, and cryptocurrencies.
The upcoming FOMC meeting is set for September 16 and 17.
Signals from US Fed officials are hinting that interest rates may be close to a “neutral” level, meaning a rate that neither speeds up nor slows down the economy, potentially allowing rate cuts.
The FOMC’s September meeting is critical because it will clarify the Fed’s stance.
Bitcoin is already at $112,000. Long-term forecasts suggest a much higher valuation by 2035. And so it is safe to assume that a confirmed rate cut could push demand further.
Current price trends suggest that we are moving towards a bearish September. Here is what you need to watch out for:
Current crypto price trends suggest that the market may be heading toward yet another red September. However, a drop in Fed rates could flip the situation
An increase in ETF inflows could reflect an increase in institutional interest, pushing the market upwards.
On the other hand, if rate cuts are seen as a desperate response to economic weakness, markets could interpret this as a sign of trouble. This uncertainty could lead to more sell-offs.
Conclusion
So, when will the crypto market go up?
There is no absolute certainty, but the FOMC’s potential rate cuts could have a significant positive impact on the crypto market. This could result in
more liquidity and
more confidence
Leading to the market going up.
For investors, the strategy is clear: stay vigilant, diversify, and keep a close eye on September 16 and 17. An optimistic Fed could turn “Septembear” into a bullish breakout, setting the stage for gains heading into Q4.
Haven’t started your crypto investment journey yet? Download the Mudrex app today and start with as little as Rs. 500!
Siri is a writer venturing into the exciting realms of blockchain technology, cryptocurrency, and decentralized finance (DeFi), eager to explore the transformative potential of these innovations. She brings a unique perspective that bridges traditional industries and cutting-edge technology, often infused with a touch of humor through memes. She has a rich background in real estate and interior design, having previously contributed to NoBroker, where she crafted blogs and assets on these topics.
