For over a decade, Bitcoin has moved to a rhythm the market knows by heart, a four-year cycle powered by its halving events.
Bull run ➡️ crash ➡️ recovery ➡️ repeat
But as we head deeper into late 2025, something feels different. Bitcoin already hit a new all-time high above $126K, and yet, the market doesn’t quite look “toppy.”
Could the old four-year script be breaking down? Or are we watching the birth of a longer, stronger Bitcoin supercycle?
Let’s explore why this time might not be like the last.
Every ~4 years, Bitcoin’s block reward halves, cutting the rate of new BTC entering circulation. Historically, this event sparks a predictable chain reaction:
That pattern has held with uncanny precision since 2012.
From the 2016 halving to the 2017 top.
From the 2020 halving to the 2021 top.
If the same rhythm applied today, the 2022 bear-market bottom (near $15K) plus 35 months brings us right… to now.
So, are we about to see history rhyme again, or has the tempo changed?
By traditional measures, yes, we’re right on schedule for a top.
We’re ~18 months post-halving (April 2024) and nearly three years from the last cycle low (Nov 2022). Past bull runs ended around this exact point.
But unlike 2017 or 2021, two major forces are in play that could extend the cycle, possibly reshaping how we understand Bitcoin market dynamics entirely.
In previous bull cycles, Bitcoin’s rallies ended when liquidity dried up.
Interest rates rose, central banks tightened, and risk assets rolled over.
Not this time.
Today’s macro backdrop looks completely different.
After two years of aggressive hikes, the U.S. Federal Reserve has begun cutting rates. Futures markets now price in further easing through 2026, a stark contrast to the late-2021 tightening that triggered crypto’s crash.
What’s more, with Donald Trump signaling his intent to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires in 2026, the next policy era could tilt even more pro-liquidity. That means capital could flow into risk assets, not out of them, right when Bitcoin’s historical cycle says liquidity should be drying up.
💡 Translation: Instead of a wall of tightening, Bitcoin may face a wave of fresh liquidity. That alone could push the current cycle far beyond its usual lifespan.
Bitcoin’s supply is fixed, but demand isn’t, and 2025 has proven that in dramatic fashion.
Institutional and corporate buyers have scooped up nearly 975,000 BTC this year, while only about 136,000 BTC have been mined. That’s a 7-to-1 demand-to-supply ratio, an imbalance that simply didn’t exist in any previous cycle.
ETFs, hedge funds, public companies, and even nation-states are now competing for the same scarce asset.
As of November 2025:
This surge of “sticky,” long-term institutional holders creates a new dynamic: fewer coins available to trade, less panic selling, and potentially fewer “classic” blow-off tops.
When demand outpaces supply this dramatically, volatility may fade, and cycles may stretch.
Bitcoin’s recent pullback from $126K raised questions about whether the top is in. But the data says otherwise. Unlike in 2017 and 2021, sentiment indicators remain moderate, on-chain data shows little long-term holder distribution, and liquidity conditions are improving, not tightening.
The ingredients for a prolonged expansion are all there.
That doesn’t mean price will move in a straight line up. But it does suggest that the era of rigid four-year cycles might be ending.
If the four-year clock is breaking, investors may need to rethink everything from entry points to exit strategies. Instead of betting on a sudden peak, the smarter approach might be to prepare for multi-year waves of accumulation, rotation, and profit-taking.
In other words, Bitcoin may be growing up.
The “danger zone” is here, but so are powerful tailwinds:
All signs point to a Bitcoin market that’s evolving, one that may defy the four-year rhythm that once defined it.
📖 The full Mudrex Alpha Report dives deeper into the data, including on-chain metrics, institutional accumulation patterns, and macro scenarios that could shape Bitcoin’s next phase.
👉 Read the full report to uncover how a lengthening Bitcoin cycle could redefine the market, and what it means for your portfolio.
