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What is Bitcoin Halving?
Bitcoin halving is a periodic event designed in the protocol of the Bitcoin blockchain to occur after every 210,000 blocks (~about 4 years) since its inception. The objective of this event is to control inflation of Bitcoin, simulate scarcity and catalyze value increase over time. With each halving event, the principles of demand and supply come into play: demand either remains steady or rises due to increased awareness, while the supply is cut by half. Naturally, scarce supply with high demand shoots the price up!
Mirroring its historical trends, a dramatic surge in Bitcoin's price, is forecasted to happen in the fourth Bitcoin halving cycle, which is set to occur in mid-April 2024.
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How does Bitcoin Halving Work
According to the protocol of Bitcoin Blockchain, Bitcoin halving occurs after a lot of 2,10,000 blocks are mined. It takes about ~10 minutes to mine one block. When we do the math, it takes approximately 4 years to mine 2,10,000 blocks. Thus, the halving cycle occurs once every four years, and will repeat until there are no more Bitcoins to be mined and the block reward becomes 0. With each halving, the block reward as well as the minting of new Bitcoins cuts to half.
Currently, 900 Bitcoins are mined everyday, and we stand at a block reward of 6.25 which will reduce to 3.125 (i.e 6.25/2) post halving. With such spaced occurrences of four years, the last halving is expected to occur in the year 2136 and the last Bitcoin will be mined in the year 2140
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Historical Bitcoin Halving Events
In the past cycles, after the first 2012 halving, Bitcoin's price went from about $12 to over an all time high of $ 1,077. Similarly, 2016 halving saw a price surge from around $650 to $19,475 post halving. The most recent halving in May 2020 witnessed Bitcoin's price rocket from $8,787 to nearly $68,990 by November 2021.
Past Bitcoin Halving Price Movements
The table below illustrates the fluctuation in Bitcoin prices three months before and after the halving month.A careful analysis of the table reveals that the most opportune moment to capitalize on halving profits is to engage in the Bitcoin market before the halving event. Following the halving month, prices consistently trend upward, making it difficult for an investor to buy a Bitcoin, even a portion of it.
Please note that in 2020, extreme volatility in Bitcoin prices was experienced, attributed largely to the global pandemic that resulted in widespread economic shutdowns.
| 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-halving Price | Month Price August ₹838.80 September ₹973.94 October ₹1,192.96 | Month Price April ₹39,544.76 May ₹41,958.64 June ₹50,001.80 | Month Price February ₹9,06,463.20 March ₹8,46,097.56 April ₹6,28,018.88 |
| Price During Halving | 24th November ₹1,118.40 | 9th July ₹61,791.60 | 11th May ₹8,14,568.00 |
| Post Halving Price | December ₹1,244.22 January ₹1,448.33 February ₹2,423.20 | August ₹53,888.24 September ₹53,347.68 October ₹66,555.98 | June ₹8,99,729.50 July ₹8,50,552.52 August ₹10,29,272.84 |
| Price% during the halving period | Aug-Feb 188.8% | Apr-Oct 68.4% | Feb-Aug 13.5% |
Future Bitcoin Halving Dates (Until 2060)
| Halving count | Date | Block height at halving | Block reward before halving | Block reward after halving |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2012-11-28 | 210,000 | 50 | 25 |
| 2 | 2016-07-09 | 420,000 | 25 | 12.5 |
| 3 | 2020-05-11 | 630,000 | 12.5 | 6.25 |
| 4 | 2024-04-20 | 840,000 | 6.25 | 3.125 |
| 5 | 2028 | 1,050,000 | 3.125 | 1.5625 |
| 6 | 2032 | 1,260,000 | 1.5625 | 0.78125 |
| 7 | 2036 | 1,470,000 | 0.78125 | 0.390625 |
| 8 | 2040 | 1,680,000 | 0.390625 | 0.1953125 |
| 9 | 2044 | 1,890,000 | 0.1953125 | 0.09765625 |
| 10 | 2048 | 2,100,000 | 0.09765625 | 0.048828125 |
| 11 | 2052 | 2,310,000 | 0.048828125 | 0.0244140625 |
| 12 | 2056 | 2,520,000 | 0.0244140625 | 0.01220703125 |
| 12 | 2060 | 2,730,000 | 0.01220703125 | 0.006103515625 |
How does Bitcoin Halving affect BTC price?
Halving impacts Bitcoin's price in the following ways:
- After each halving, Bitcoin's inflation rate drops, and supply tightens as fewer new coins are introduced to the market.
- Slashing the rewards to the miners incentivizes the network's sustainable growth by slowing down the creation of new bitcoins. This guarantees that Bitcoin's supply stays limited and finite, preserving its value.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction After Halving
Bitcoin's price often surges after halving due to reduced supply and increased scarcity, growing public attention, increase in hodlers, and an expectation that the historical patterns of Bitcoin price will repeat.
Here are a few expert predictions of the Bitcoin price for the 2024 halving :
Standard Chartered : Forecasts $120000 BTC by Dec 2024
Bloomberg : Forecasts up to $500000 per BTC
BitQuant : Post halving BTC of $250000
Robert Kiyosaki : $150000 BTC by June, 2024
ARK Invest : $1.5million by 2030
Despite strong predictions, Bitcoin's market is complex. While halving is a key event, its price impact can vary based on other factors like Government regulations, market sentiments, development in technologies and more.
BTC Price Prediction
How Miners are Preparing for Bitcoin Halving 2024?
Bitcoin halving for miners will mean reduced rewards. To adapt, they must invest in more efficient mining hardware or seek out lower electricity costs to maintain profitability. This adjustment is crucial for their continued viability in a post-halving landscape.
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Impact of Bitcoin Halving on Overall Crypto Market
The Bitcoin halving will reinforce the status of Bitcoin as a valuable asset attracting more interest from both individual and institutional investors.
The crypto ecosystem overall will foster bullish market sentiment. The halving event will spur innovation, drawing new market participants, attracting massive influx of capital, and promoting enduring growth. Very soon, institutional investors will jump into the crypto ecosystem, followed by nations.
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Frequently Asked Questions
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What will halving do to Bitcoin?
The Bitcoin halving will cut the new Bitcoin supply to half, making it scarce and more valuable, while reinforcing the status of Bitcoin as a store of value for the long-term.
What date is the next Bitcoin halving?
The next halving will happen after 2,10,000 blocks are mined, which is estimated to be in 2028.
How many Bitcoin halvings are left?
The last Bitcoin will be mined approximately in the year 2140 and halving cycles will occur after every 4 years. According to this, there will be 28 more halving cycles post 2024.
Will Bitcoin halving the price increase?
Following the basic principles of demand and supply, if demand stays constant but the new supply is cut by half, it's inevitable that Bitcoin's price will rise.
Is Bitcoin halving bullish?
The approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs on January 10, 2024, unleashed a wave of retail investment, swiftly followed by institutional investors eager to accumulate bitcoins. This surge in demand drove the price of Bitcoin to a whooping $64k, inching near its all-time high of $69k. Bitcoin's market is clearly exhibiting bullish momentum, even before the halving event.
